Housing Outlook Remains Weak While Labor Market Stays Strong
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In summary, the 2017 housing market will be strong, but buyers should beware of potential pricing "bubbles" resulting from an imbalance between supply and demand. For example, the National Association of Realtors forecasts that existing home sales will increase 1.6 percent from 2016 levels, while new single-family home sales will increase 9.
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The decision by the Monetary Policy Committee of the South African Reserve Bank to leave the repo rate unchanged is most welcome in a climate where the economic and housing market outlook remains weak. Save for any major dilemma, it also now seems likely that we will see the year out without any.
Overall, despite weakness in housing, the economy continues to be supported by a tight labor market, rising incomes, solid balance sheets, and reasonably high levels of consumer confidence. The main risks on the horizon are fallout from escalating trade wars and uncertainty about global economic conditions.
The fact that Friday’s data feels surprisingly soft is a testament to how strong the labor market has been for years on end. Even as the jobs market cools a bit, the outlook remains stellar.
Will the economy maintain momentum in 2019, boosting demand for commercial real estate and keeping property prices on their upward path? Or are there signs of weakening in the foundation that could lead to a downturn? These are some of the top issues that real estate investors will face in 2019.
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Another sign that labour market conditions have yet to tighten significantly is that real wage growth remains very weak in many countries. While this helped contain job losses during the crisis and was necessary in some euro area countries in order to regain competitiveness, it is now holding back a stronger recovery in consumer spending.
Economics: Continued Labor Market Strength amid Softening Growth Outlook; Housing: Despite a Disappointing 2018, There Is Hope for Existing Home Sales This Year; 01/18 Weekly Note . Economics: Consumers Feel Blue at the Start of the Year; Housing: Declining Mortgage Rates Boost Builders’ Confidence and Mortgage Demand; 01/11 Weekly Note
While a degree of uncertainty clouds the economic outlook at the start of 2019, we believe that growth and confidence will pick up throughout the year. Momentum in the consumer and business sectors is strong, China is already deploying extra fiscal stimulus to boost its economy, and we expect growth